AI Patterns and Breadboardeight days beforeIn my last post, I kept talking about AI patterns, but kept…Pace layers of predictability

Asymptotes and Value Niches2023I have been thinking lately about a framing that would help clarify…Moving the ladder2022Riffing on the cost of opinion piece, I realized that there’s a…Dandelion or Elephant?2022The discovery of the dandelion/elephant framing was exciting and my fellow FLUX…I’ve been talking about pace layering a lot, within the dandelions and elephants story and in other pieces. Here’s yet another way to apply this framing.

Steady winds, doldrums, and hurricanes2023It just so happened that this year, many of my friends and…One thing that stood out to me was this notion of a common force that animates their formation. Here’s my guess: this force is the desire for predictability.

The ODA and OODA stances2023Organizations operating in the OODA stance focus on bettering their mental models.…Tension in Shared Mental Model Space2022This just occurred to me today, so I am writing this down…Decision-making mindsets2023I have this intuition that the process is not the most important…Slow down2021I wrote this one primarily for myself, though I believe it’s good…Flux budget and predictability footprint2021I’ve been thinking about this idea of the flux budget as a…For example, in organizations, there is usually a larger group — often a dominant majority — of folks who seek a fairly predictable environment. They usually feel rather uncomfortable about the uncertainty of a problem space, and you can hear this discomfort in phrases like “just tell me what to do” or “we need clear timelines and deliverables”. There is nothing wrong with this stance. I find myself in this group at times, especially when I am in fallback. Another way to think of it is that we find ourselves here when our predictability footprint expands. This group tends to seek “one true shared mental model” and usually reacts with pain to disconfirming evidence, forming the slowest-moving predictability pace layer.

The third option2024The deeper insight here is that we are surrounded by polarities. Behind…To manage that pain, there’s a much smaller group of those who are able to face unpredictability a bit more. These folks have a slightly higher tolerance for ambiguity and can experience polarities not as a series of harrowing swings back and forth, but rather as one nuanced system. They can play with multiple conflicting mental models and see disconfirming evidence as input, rather than pain inflicted. This ability is not without cost, and usually requires continuous support and scaffolding.

Jankless2021As we Orient, examining our prediction error and updating our model of…What the heck is strategy work?2022One interpretation is a visage of a wizard: me sitting in an…Intention and shared mental model space2021Hamilton Helmer pointed out this amazing connection between intention and shared mental…This smaller group forms a much thinner and faster-moving predictability pace layer on top of the slower layer. When an organization employs such folks effectively, they become instrumental in gently evolving the “one true shared mental model” of the larger group in a direction that is long-term productive for this organization. This is the stance that I myself enjoy the most and feel that resonant sense of aligning with Purpose.

Sailors and Pirates2023Here’s a fun metaphor for you. I’ve been chatting with colleagues about…Sometimes a team is lucky enough to have true pirates: a handful of people whose predictability footprint is so small that they are able to go where even the most ambiguity-tolerant people dare not touch. Disconfirming evidence is necessary sustenance to them. These folks can examine the load-bearing beliefs in ways that would terrify or at least profoundly upset most members of the organization. They can do deep ontological dives and come back unfazed, with insights that have the power to shape the future of the organization.

Deep Stack Engineer2023Riffing on the idea of layer gaps, we can surmise that pretty…When employed effectively, these are the peeps that establish foundational frameworks within which the gentle evolution of the organization occurs. This is the fastest-moving predictability layer where I aspire to be, even though most of the time, I pop up to that layer only momentarily.

The Layering Principle2023Preference toward layering is probably one of the more fundamental principles of…Of course, this is not some sort of normative layout of layers that every organization must possess. My guess is that each organization has their own layer configurations.

Cheesecake and Baklava2022To compare and contrast, let’s look at Cascading Style Sheets. It’s fairly…What’s important about them is that they are typically mostly separate and insular from each other – and for good reason. Exposing folks at the lowest layer to the more intense pace of the higher layer will rapidly trigger allergic response. And giving them a sense of the top layer’s pace will seem like Lovecraftian horror. Boundaries tend to arise to prevent such shenanigans.

Organizational cartography2022Given that this team is thriving, the various units within it collaborate…Dandelion/Elephant Strategy Rubric2022On the other hand, dandelions and the r-selected species they represent choose…What’s most curious is that these pacing layers rarely respect hierarchies and organizational structures. There could be leaders of large teams who crave predictability. There could be random junior team members who are surprisingly great at diving into the abyss of uncertainty and bringing back useful insights. The ability to tolerate unpredictability changes with one’s circumstances, and hierarchies tend to strive for permanence.

Separating cargo from the train2023I’ve been puzzling over a problem that many engineering teams face and…As a result, the insulation between layers tends to develop in haphazard and unproductive ways. Within predictability-craving organizations, those who are comfortable with uncertainty are deemed “troublemakers” and shunned or ignored. Conversely, folks who desire more predictability are labeled as “unimaginative” in places where experimentation and exploration are valued. Instead of recognizing mutual significance and collaborating, teams at different predictability pace layers resent each other’s differences.

The waterline2023Similarly, every technology organization has a waterline. Everything above this waterline will…Forces of the pace layering confusion2021I had a super-insightful conversation this week with a colleague about approaches…Gravity and water2023I have been lucky enough to be part of the process of…In practice, this means that harnessing the full potential of this pace layering and using it to the advantage of the organization is very uncommon. I keep wondering what a team that is designed around predictability pace layers – rather than in spite of them – would even look like.

Generating ideas and strategy coherence2022Here’s the thing. In software engineering (as likely in many technology fields),…Sometimes you gotta hit the walltwo days afterI’ve probably written about this a few years back, but I still…Diving into unpredictabilitylinks here, 2023My previous essay on the topic of unpredictability generated a few insightful…Given that overall levels of unpredictability around us seem to be ever-increasing, this might be an important challenge to take on. Perhaps you, my readers, will find an opportunity here.